Since the various mad predictions of global calamity failed this year (I count 3 apocalypse-failures for 2012 off the top of my head), it seems apt to fish out some publishing industry predictions as the year closes. I’ll list the headings, and if something piques your interest, click through to dig deeper.
Forbes keeps it short:
- Goodreads becomes a bookseller
- Ebook marketplace gets dynamic and goes beyond discounting
- Major publishers will form back-list marketing divisions
And Digital Book World has these:
- More consolidation.
- 2013 will be the year of the enhanced ebook.
- The $0 Kindle.
- More publishers will start selling digital-rights-management-free ebooks (DRM-free) and directly to consumers.
- Ebook market-share growth will slow.
- Ebook marketing will be completely re-thought.
- There will be a major privacy breach at a library that involves ebooks and reader information.
- By the end of 2013, 65% of U.S. children will have access to an e-reading device.
- Educational publisher Cengage will default on its bonds and be combined with McGraw-Hill.
- Barnes & Noble share price will dip below $10.00.
In fairness I think the DBW list is a bit padded. Making predictions about share prices doesn’t really seem a big deal, and doubling up on ‘consolidation’ in 1 and 9 seems a bit cheap, but maybe these things are more significant than I can understand from my reader/writer perspective.
Originals here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremygreenfield/2012/12/21/three-predictions-for-book-publishing-in-2013/ and here: http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2012/ten-bold-predictions-for-ebooks-and-digital-publishing-in-2013/